Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow Nearly 6% in 2024, Driven by Stronger Growth for Android in China and Emerging Markets, According to IDC

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For more information, contact:

• Nabila Popal  Email: npopal@idc.com  Phone number: +1 571-373-1816
• Anthony Scarsella  Email: ascarsella@idc.com  Phone number: +1 508-935-4712
• Ryan Reith  Email: rreith@idc.com  Phone number: +1 508-935-4301
• Michael Shirer  Email: press@idc.com  Phone number: +1 508-935-4200

NEEDHAM, Mass., August 27, 2024 – Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 5.8% year over year in 2024 to 1.23 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The 12% growth in the first quarter, followed by 9% growth last quarter, has brought improved optimism about how 2024 will play out in the second half of the year. Affordable Android smartphones continue to grow rapidly in emerging markets coming off a difficult two years while premium markets are starting to embrace GenAI smartphones, generating excitement and renewed interest in the industry.

"The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets," said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1% than iOS at 0.8%. Apple's softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China but also a higher comparison base year. However, there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades."

"Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack," said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "IDC expects a robust 344% growth for GenAI smartphones capturing 18% share of the total market by end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features. However, GenAI-capable devices won't come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, further driving the premiumization trend."

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

For more information about IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and jkliem@idc.com.

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About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

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